Get To Know a College Basketball Mid-Major: Missouri Valley Conference

You know all about the Power 6 conferences in college basketball. You hear about those more than any other, and those groups often dominate the March Madness conversation. There are 31 other conferences out there, however, and our goal is to get you up to speed on the teams, players and fights in the standings to know before the conference tournaments, Selection Sunday and the official start of March Madness. It’s time for you to get to know a mid-major: this time, it’s the Missouri Valley Conference. The “Valley” has been around for a long time — it’s the fourth-oldest collegiate conference in the nation, having formed way back in 1907, and the Big Ten is the lone Division I conference even older than it is. Back then it was known as the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association, and a number of its members eventually split to form what would be known, down the line, as the Big 8 — the predecessor to the Big 12. There’s history in the Valley, as the oldest mid-major there is, and parent, as it were, to an existing power conference. In the present, the MVC has 11 teams within it. To account for the drop from 12 to 11 teams, in this year’s conference tournament, seeds 6 through 11 will face off in the first round, with the winners moving on to the quarterfinals. The winner of 8 vs. 9 will face the top seed, 7 vs. 10 takes on the second and the third gets the victor in 6 vs. 11. No. 4 and No. 5 will face each other in the same round, meaning, five teams now receive a first-round bye to keep things mathematically even in an odd-numbered conference. Winning the Missouri Valley Conference championship is vital, as the Valley has sent just its automatic bid recipient to March Madness in each of its last three years, on both the men’s and women’s side. MVC — Men’s College Basketball Leaders: Belmont leads the conference, and this late in the season, it isn’t close: the Bruins are 14-3, three games up on UIC and Bradley. Murray State is another half-game back, at 11-7, then Illinois State and UNI are tied at 10-7. Valparaiso is 9-8, closing out the teams over .500, with Southern Illinois (7-10), defending conference champ Drake (6-12), Indiana State (3-14) and Evansville 2-14 behind it. Belmont, despite its MVC dominance, just makes it as a bubble team as measured by Wins Above Bubble, as it sits 54th in the rankings with a 0.01 score, where a straight zero is considered the mathematical representation of the bubble team. It’s also 54th in the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the highest of any team in the Valley. UNI and Illinois State are both top-100 teams by NET, with Murray State just missing at 101. Bradley and Southern Illinois round out the top-150 teams within the conference. WAB is harsher: Murray State is next up behind Belmont, at 102, with a score of -4.31. The fun thing about conference tournaments, however, is that these scores are merely a suggestion as for how things could go down: Murray State isn’t tourney-worthy per NET or WAB, but guess what? If the Racers take down the Bruins, then it’s Murray State with the automatic bid in hand. The same goes for Valparaiso, Drake, whichever team, but obviously the odds of that happening go down the further down the standings — and rankings — you go. And Murray State has exactly the kind of setup needed for conference upsets. Senior center Fredrick King leads the MVC in rebounds and blocks per game, and is a menace on the glass whether it’s offensive or defensive boards. He also boasts the highest shooting percentage in the Valley — 64.9% — and leads in Player Efficiency Rating (27.0). He’s the kind of player who can power Murray State against any opponent, but conversely, the Racers rely heavily on the 6-foot-10 Creighton transfer, so shutting him down can also end a season. Belmont lost to Indiana State and Southern Illinois right at the start of conference play, then rattled off nine wins in a row before dropping to Bradley in overtime. The Bruins are the favorites for a number of reasons — depth and a top-50 Offensive Rating via KenPom, for example — but they are not invulnerable. MVC – Women’s College Basketball Leaders: Murray State is atop the Missouri Valley at 13-1, with Belmont 12-2 and Bradley 11-4. Illinois State is 9-5, Northern Iowa close behind at 9-6, Drake and UIC 7-8, Southern Illinois 6-9, then Evansville and Indiana State at 4-12, finally bringing us to 0-16 Valparaiso. More on the Beacons in a moment. There is no bubble-caliber team on the women’s side of the Missouri Valley Conference; instead, there is exactly one top-100 team. It’s Belmont again, though, with Murray State close behind at 101. The two are within the top-100 in Net Rating, as well, with Belmont 91st because of its defense — it’s allowing 87.23 points per 100 possessions — and Murray State 100 on the dot for scoring 105.26 points per 100 possessions. Belmont scores about 6.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than Murray State, which allows nearly 10 more points per 100 possessions than Belmont. Polar opposite teams. UNI, Bradley and Illinois State round out the rest of the top-200 in NET at 119, 139 and 156, respectively, and then things decline until you get to 357 of 363, Valparaiso. Poor Valparaiso. Through Feb. 19, it’s 0-27, one of three winless teams in Division I women’s basketball — the Beacons didn’t schedule a Division II school during non-conference play, even, so it’s a true 0-27. Look on the bright side. A winless team that still gets into the conference tourney means the upset potential is through the roof. Northern Iowa’s Ryley Goebel deserves some shine here. She’s eighth in D-I in blocks with 2.5 per game, but there is more to her than just the rejections. She’s scoring 14.1 points per game, and is fifth in the Valley in rebounds at 8.2 per. She’s fourth in steals, averaging 2.0, and leads the conference in shooting percentage (59.3%). She’s one of three MVC players with a Player Efficiency Rating over 30, at 31.2, and leads the conference in Plus/Minus and Defensive Rating. Like with Fredrick King, Goebel can take over a game. And she has. Similarly, Murray State’s senior forward Sharnecce Currie-Jelks is a terror, as she’s averaging a double-double on the season with 18.6 points — second on the Racers behind conference leader Halli Poock — with 11.6 rebounds. Joining those two are junior guard Haven Ford (16.8 points with 6.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists) and junior guard Keslyn Secrist (12.4, 7.0, 1.4). Thanks to this unit, Murray State scores a conference-best 87 points per game in MVC play and is at 84.9 overall, ninth-best in D-I. The problem is that the defense is just as horrible as the offense is good: overall, the Racers have the 343rd-most points allowed per game, at 75, and that figure is actually higher in conference play, 75.9, ninth-worst in the MVC. Or, the spot directly ahead of the team that has lost every game this season. It’s open-season on the women’s side of the MVC, too, is the lesson to be learned. Will Belmont’s defense topple Murray State’s offense, or the other way around? Will the weakness of one be exploited by another team before then? That’s what March aims to tell us.
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